The odds are poor, but not zero

Louis Nizer, a lawyer who was born in England but practiced in the United States, said, "I know of no higher fortitude than stubbornness in the face of overwhelming odds."

Sometimes the odds that you are going down in your contract will be overwhelming. But be stubborn -- try to find a distribution that will let you get home.

In this deal, you are in four hearts. West leads the diamond ace, then adroitly shifts to a trump. You seem to have four losers: one spade and three diamonds. Is there any chance?

North's one-spade response increased the value of your hand, making it well worth your three-heart jump-rebid. North raised to game, hoping for the best.

If West had not led a heart at trick two, you could have ruffed a diamond in the dummy to give you 10 tricks: two spades, six hearts, one club and that ruff. What, though, would you do now?

You could play another diamond, hoping that West is now out of hearts. However, that is very unlikely. Instead, assume the spades are splitting 3-3 and play to establish a third trick in that suit. True, the a priori chance of that happening is only 35.53 percent, but that is a lot better than nothing. However, if you draw trumps immediately, then, when you lose a spade trick, the opponents will cash two more diamonds to defeat you.

At trick three, while you still have a trump in the dummy to ruff a third round of diamonds, play a low spade from both hands. Then, win whatever comes back, draw trumps, and hope the spades are obliging.

Copyright 2010, United Feature Syndicate

North

@date2:09-03-10

@handtext: SPADES A 7 6 4

HEARTS Q 5

DIAMONDS Q 2

CLUBS J 9 6 3 2

West East

@handtext:SPADES 10 8 3 SPADES Q J 9

HEARTS 6 3 HEARTS 7 4 2

DIAMONDS A K J 6 4 DIAMONDS 9 8 5

CLUBS 8 5 4 CLUBS K Q 10 7

South

@handtext: SPADES K 5 2

HEARTS A K J 10 9 8

DIAMONDS 10 7 3

CLUBS A

@vulnerable:Dealer: South

Vulnerable: Both

Copyright 2010, Newspaper Enterprise Assn.